In August, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 49.7, and the industry was operating steadily and positively. In terms of raw materials, raw cotton prices have risen steadily this month, chemical fiber prices have fluctuated slightly, textile companies purchase on-demand, and raw material inventories are relatively reasonable; in the production and sales link, the production index this month has rebounded to the prosperous range, and orders have improved significantly compared with the previous month. Product inventory pressure has decreased; in terms of operating performance, the market has picked up significantly this month, and downstream orders have begun to increase. Textile companies have taken advantage of this market to activate inventory, while raw material costs have been rising, yarn and cloth products have been lagging behind, and sales of textile companies have been cleared at low prices. Inventory-based, profit margin is small. Regarding the market outlook, as the domestic and foreign consumer markets continue to recover steadily, it is expected that the market's positive trend in textile enterprises will increase significantly compared to last month.
In terms of production, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.0% in August, which was basically the same as the previous month, indicating that the overall manufacturing industry was operating smoothly. In all sub-indices, except for the raw material inventory index and the employee index, the other indexes are in the boom range. The new order index has rebounded for 4 consecutive months, indicating that market demand has recovered; the export order index is 49.1%, a high The 0.7 percentage point last month indicated that a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment continued to release, and manufacturing exports further improved. The questionnaire survey of the China Cotton Banking Association is basically consistent with the trend of PMI.
In terms of domestic consumption, in August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,357.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, the first positive growth this year. Among them, the growth rate of apparel, footwear, and knitwear turned negative to positive, up 4.2% year-on-year. It shows that my country has fully restored the normal production and living order, the demand for textiles and clothing has begun to release, and the cotton textile market has also felt the warmth of recovery.
In terms of foreign trade, my country's imports and exports have gradually stabilized and improved. On the one hand, a series of foreign trade stabilization policies and measures promulgated by the State Council since the beginning of this year have been continuously implemented, and policy effects have continued to be released; on the other hand, as the international epidemic is gradually brought under control, international market demand has gradually recovered. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in August, textile and apparel exports were 216.96 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 22.6%, of which textile exports were 103.23 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 49.7%, and clothing exports were 113.73 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.2%. From April to August, exports of textiles and clothing increased for five consecutive months. With the increase in the production capacity of foreign anti-epidemic materials and the decrease in the prices of anti-epidemic products, the growth rate of textile exports in August slowed down compared with the previous period. As the demand for clothing purchases in major markets rebounded, clothing exports rebounded, increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month.
Raw material purchasing index
In August, the raw material purchase index was 51.96, which was in a boom range for three consecutive months. This month, the domestic cotton spot price rose steadily. Zheng cotton futures prices fluctuated higher, and the futures price rose more than the spot price. In terms of international cotton prices, the Cotlook A index showed a "W"-shaped trend in the month, and the US Department of Agriculture issued an announcement in the middle of the month. Global cotton supply and demand forecast monthly report, global cotton production increased by 280,000 tons, and cotton consumption decreased by 270,000 tons. International cotton prices were affected by this news and there was a significant drop. Then market sentiment was restored and prices were corrected. The bidding atmosphere for reserve cotton this month is fierce, and the whole transaction has been maintained. From the price point of view, the transaction price is linked to the fluctuation of cotton price; from the perspective of the transaction volume, the auction reserve of traders is greater than that of textile enterprises. Textile enterprises said that as the auction gradually enters the final stage, it will pay close attention to market conditions and cotton price fluctuations, and choose the opportunity to auction storage and replenishment. In terms of non-cotton fibers, the price of viscose staple fiber steadily decreased slightly, and the direct-spun polyester staple fiber fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of the month, affected by the typhoon and optimistic about the market outlook, the willingness to ship direct-spun polyester shorts decreased, and the quotations of some factories rose. Later, affected by the fluctuation of raw material prices, the selling prices were adjusted.
Specific data, this month the domestic average price of 3128 cotton is 12605 yuan/ton, up 257 yuan/ton from the previous month; the average CotlookA index is 69.95 cents/lb, up 1.43 cents/lb from the previous month; the average price of mainstream viscose fiber is 8413 yuan/ Ton, a month-on-month decrease of 91 yuan/ton; the average price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple was 5472 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 75 yuan/ton.
Raw material inventory index
In August, the raw material inventory index was 49.33, a slight decrease from the previous month. This month, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises has decreased due to three main reasons: first, sales have picked up, the production pace has accelerated, and the consumption of raw materials has increased; second, the price of gauze lags this month, and the profit level of spinning enterprises has been compressed. In order to reduce financial pressure, Mainly consume the raw material inventory in the factory; thirdly, the new year cotton will be launched soon, the raw material supply is sufficient, and the textile enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood. According to a questionnaire coordinated by the China National Cotton Bank, the proportion of companies with a month-on-month increase in cotton inventory is 34.62%, and the proportion of companies with a month-on-month decline is 40.03%; the proportion of companies with a month-on-month increase in non-cotton fiber inventories is 26.88%, and the proportion of companies that have declined. At 34.92%, the inventory of cotton and non-cotton fiber was more than the decline in the previous month.
Production index
In August, the production index was 50.54, and the production of textile enterprises was on track. In August, the market atmosphere continued to pick up, downstream actively stocking up, and the operating rate of textile enterprises increased compared with the previous month. Among them, the production rhythm of grey cloth was significantly accelerated; yarn and cloth production increased month-on-month, and yarn output exceeded cloth output. Some textile companies said that at present, foreign trade orders are being placed one after another, and the customer specifies that the raw material is foreign cotton, and there is little left in the tariff quota previously allocated. In early September, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement to start issuing sliding tax quotas. Compared with 800,000 tons in previous years, this year's quantity is 400,000 tons, and it is designated as a processing trade quota.
Product Sales Index
In August, the product sales index was 49.17, an increase of 0.53 from the previous month. This month, the market orders are dominated by domestic sales, and most of the orders are small orders; the shipments of conventional varieties are still shipped at low prices to destock; the medium and high count yarn market is affected by the recovery of foreign trade orders, and the inquiries and orders are more than in previous months. Increased. According to the China National Cotton Association, the sales of yarn and cloth recovered significantly in August, and the sales of yarn became smoother. In terms of prices, yarn prices declined weakly in the first half of the month, and grey cloth prices remained stable; at the end of the month, affected by the continuous increase in raw material costs, yarn prices rose slightly, but grey cloths were weak to keep up, and profit margins continued to be squeezed.
Product inventory index
In August, the product inventory index was 50.05, which was in a prosperous range for the first time this year, and enterprise production and sales tended to be balanced. This month is the “warm-up” month of the textile peak season. The market atmosphere has recovered and the sales of gauze are relatively smooth. In addition, textile companies have been working hard to destock and protect funds, so the pressure on product inventory has been significantly reduced from the previous month. According to a questionnaire coordinated by the China National Cotton Bank, the proportion of companies with a month-on-month increase in product inventory in August was 31.89%, a decrease of 13.56 percentage points from the previous month. The proportion of companies with a month-on-month decline in product inventory accounted for 20.34%, an increase of 2.95 percentage points from the previous month; Inventory growth has slowed down significantly.
Business index
In August, the business operation index was 46.95, a slight increase from the previous month. As the domestic production and life order returned to normal, the textile and clothing consumption broke the burden for the first time, and the warmth was transmitted to the entire industrial chain. The downstream enthusiasm for preparing for the "Double Eleven" began to increase, and the demand for seasonal products improved, especially the sales of medium and high count yarns. Recovery, but the profit of each product is not satisfactory. Textile companies said that the current business priority is still to maintain capital and reduce losses. At present, domestic cotton prices have risen significantly. Due to cost pressures, most of them use real estate cotton or imported cotton, which can maintain production and meet the quality requirements of downstream customers while reducing cost pressure.
Business confidence index
In August, the corporate confidence index was 50.65, and textile enterprises are confident about the market outlook. Textile enterprises said that the current domestic consumer market continues to pick up, and orders remain basically stable; with the control of the overall epidemic abroad, social activities are gradually unblocked, consumer demand increases, and foreign trade orders have also recovered. It is believed that although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is lighter than the same period of previous years, compared with the market situation from January to August this year, the number of textile companies that are expected to have a significant improvement in the market atmosphere has increased significantly. There are also some textile companies that believe that there are many uncertain factors in the macro economy at present, and there is a possibility that the market will be cold.
Note: The prosperity index of China's cotton textile industry is collected from nearly 500 sub-cotton textile enterprises across the country. It is calculated by weighting multiple major indicators with reference to the national manufacturing PMI and other index formulation methods. When the index is higher than 50, it means the cotton textile industry The prosperous level of this month is better than that of the previous month. If it is lower than 50, it means that the prosperous level of this month is not as good as last month.
