In the global commodity markets and textile related areas, there have been many complex and interwoven dynamic changes recently. The strong rise of the US dollar has had a significant impact on the cotton market, and the price trend of ICE cotton and Zheng cotton has attracted much attention. The shipping market has also ushered in new waves, setting off a wave of price increases; At the same time, the United States has introduced safeguards for fine denser polyester staple fiber, and this series of changes is quietly reshaping the industry landscape.
Us dollar strength climbed ICE cotton and Zheng cotton both down
On November 21, Zheng cotton prices recovered slightly. Zheng cotton main contract closed at 13,975 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.5%.
The US dollar climbed strongly, the commodity market was under overall pressure, and ICE cotton and Zheng cotton both fell. The loose supply and demand pattern in the domestic and foreign markets continued, and the USDA supply and demand report in November lowered global cotton production and ending inventories, but the adjustment was small, and the US cotton export forecast was lowered, making the market's consumption forecast for the future poor. Although the Federal Reserve has opened the pace of interest rate cuts, there are still differences on the speed and rhythm of interest rate cuts, the downturn in demand has not significantly changed, and the global cotton supply and demand pattern is still expected to be loose, suppressing the space above international cotton prices.
Shipping prices are rising again
Due to the expected tax increase, the industry expects that the shipping market will be rushed to the United States, resulting in a rise in freight rates. From the performance of the domestic shipping market, the price of shipping futures contracts in recent months has risen continuously, and shipping stocks have risen sharply during the year.
After November 15, the global shipping market ushered in a wave of price increases as expected. Well-known shipping companies such as MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have issued price hike notices, involving many important routes from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Africa.
The price hike is influenced by many factors, including the cabin control policy of European shipping companies, the market concerns caused by Trump's campaign slogan, and the deepening crisis in the Red Sea. It remains to be seen how long the price increases can be sustained, but it is expected that stocking demand in Europe and the United States may bring a small peak season before the Chinese Lunar Year holiday.
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